Summer is the time to make longer-term investments in NFL wagering. Season win total over/unders are a great way to put your money where your mouth is on the upcoming season. It’s delayed gratification for the payout, but it can be a lucrative way to pick up some wagering wins.
There are a few team win lines that definitely catch my eye for 2022.
– Philadelphia Eagles over 9.5
It feels like I’m missing something with the Eagles projection of 9.5 wins. They added premium help where they needed it most by bringing in WR A.J. Brown. The run game and offensive line remain top-shelf. Jalen Hurts continues to progress at quarterback in an offense that is smartly tailored to his particular set of skills. There’s no real reason to think Hurts isn’t the long-term franchise QB in Philadelphia.
Defensively, the Eagles have playmakers and veteran leadership. They have some functional depth with promising youngsters in the mix. In looking at their schedule, it would not surprise me if the Eagles are the last team to lose a game in 2022. Barring an odd amount of injuries or unexpectedly poor play from more than just Hurts at QB, this is a playoff team that should expect to win 11-12 games. Maybe more…
– Indianapolis Colts over 9.5
Betting on the Colts to hit double digits in wins means having faith in Matt Ryan having a revitalization in his first year away from Atlanta. It’s hedged by an underappreciated defense that is strong up the middle. Having one of the NFL’s best weapons in Jonathan Taylor helps too.
I love the way Indy’s schedule sets up. Two eminently winnable division road games in the first two weeks means the Colts can establish some momentum before even playing at home. They draw most of their more formidable non-AFC South foes at home, too. Their skill position depth worries me more than a little, enough that any wager here would be a conservative one.
– Arizona Cardinals under 9.5
One of the reasons I like the Cardinals and the under is because of where the line sits. It’s 9.5 at BetMGM, but Arizona is commonly listed at 8.5 at most other major sportsbooks. Even that lower line is still mighty tempting for the precariously talented Cardinals.
This is not the same team that raced out so such a strong start a year ago. The defense has more questions, and the depth across the offense doesn’t look as impressive — particularly in the run game. Of course, Kyler Murray ascending to an MVP candidate can solve a lot of the issues. He has that kind of upside, and it has manifested enough that I wouldn’t fault fans for believing. I’m not betting on it, quite literally. That precipitous fall from 8-1 to 11-6 last year sure doesn’t seem like a fluke, certainly not after seeing the lifeless effort in the playoff blowout loss to the Rams.
– Chicago Bears under 6.5
For my money, the Bears have the worst all-around roster in the NFL. Mix in a rookie head coach, a rookie GM who has already made some personnel missteps (three new players arrested) with the NFL’s weakest receiving corps and one of the thinnest defenses at all three levels, and this is the one wager I’m most confident in making. Hard to see this team finishing better than 4-13 unless Justin Fields is truly transcendent in his second season.
– New York Jets over 5.5
Betting on the Jets to overachieve has been a sucker’s folly for a long time, and it could be again with the error-prone Zach Wilson coming off an underwhelming rookie campaign at QB. However, the Jets have quietly built up a pretty impressive young core on defense. The weaponry around Wilson looks better, and the young line in front of him has higher-end potential than it’s played to consistently. It’s a bit of an aspirational pick to predict the Jets to hit six or seven wins in Robert Saleh’s second year as head coach, but I like their chances with their schedule and style of play.
– All lines are from BetMGM as of July 19